Likely, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

857
FXUS66 KMFR 070428
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
928 PM PDT Sun Apr 6 2025

.DISCUSSION...

A weakening cold front is moving through the forecast area this
evening with plenty of precipitation on the radar scope. Rain
accumulation has been moderate with about 1.00 reported by a
spotter in Josephine County over 12 hours. It looks like another
front will move through later tonight and early Monday morning
along with the axis of the upper level trough. Once all that moves
through, the precipitation mode will definitely turn more showery
into the day on Monday. Crater Lake will see a few inches of
snow, but the snow levels will be high with all this
precipitation. This is pretty low impact Spring weather given the
12Z ensemble data.

-Smith

&&

.AVIATION...07/00Z TAFs...MVFR ceilings and terrain obscurations are
spreading west to east across the area this evening as a front moves
through the region. Along with lower flight conditions, expect
widespread rain, as well as gusty winds along the coast, east of the
Cascades and in the Shasta Valley. A second wave will traverse the
area throughout the day Monday, keeping rain, lower ceilings, and
gusty winds in the forecast through the remainder of the TAF period.
 Freezing levels will remain at or above 5000 ft.
-BPN/BR-y

&&

.MARINE...Updated 800 PM Sunday, April 6th...Multiple fronts will
pass through the region through mid-week, maintaining gusty south to
southwest winds. Moderate long period swell (10-13 ft @ 15 to 18
seconds) will build across the waters today, with seas peaking this
afternoon around 13-14 ft. Persistent west to southwest swell,
combined with periods of increased wind waves, will maintain steep
seas and advisory level conditions through at least mid-week.
Conditions improve late in the week, but additional fronts are
expected next weekend and could bring another round of hazardous
conditions. -BPN/BR-y

&&

.BEACH HAZARDS...Updated 200 PM Sunday, April 6th...A moderate
long period swell is building into the waters today, resulting in a
moderate risk of sneaker waves through this afternoon. Sneaker waves
can run up significantly farther on beaches than normal, including
over rocks and jetties. These waves can suddenly knock people off of
their feet and quickly pull them into the cold ocean waters,
resulting in serious injury or death. Waves may also lift driftwood
logs, trapping anyone caught underneath. Keep a safe distance from
the ocean during this time, and remember to NEVER turn your back on
the ocean.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 211 PM PDT Sun Apr 6 2025/
Thicker cumulus has been settling in and showers have been moving
in today along a cold front. These showers will continue moving
north- northeastward through the rest of the afternoon. Since it
was a warmer morning due to extra cloud cover, highs will still be
above normal later this afternoon. Highs will be a few degrees
above normal west of the Cascades, but with the rain focusing on
areas near and west of the Cascades east side will see highs 10 to
15 degrees above normal in the 60s and 70s! Since 2 AM, current
totals are looking to be around a quarter of an inch to a third of
an inch for areas near Roseburg west and slightly over a third of
an inch in Curry County.

Between 5 PM and 11 PM today, the probability to see 0.75" in the
coastal mountains is ~70% and for west side valleys, there is a 50-
70% probability to see 0.25" of rain. Forecast CAPEs with HREF are
showing 100-200 J/kg for tomorrow afternoon along the coast and in
northwestern Douglas County. Forecast soundings also support the
same scenario, so have worked on adding a slight chance to this area
for the afternoon. There will also be a concern for stronger winds
with forecast 700 mb winds east of the Cascades nearing 40-50 kts.
With that, ridges will have stronger southerly/southwesterly flow
tonight and continuing into tomorrow.

Snow levels are still falling to 5,500-6,500 feet tomorrow
morning, but overall snow will be a lower concern for the
Cascades. Between Monday morning and Monday evening elevations
above 6,000 feet could see between 5 to 8 inches, but overall
totals for the Cascades will be 1 to 4 inches otherwise.

Showers will continue Tuesday mainly for areas north of the Umpqua
Divide, in the coastal mountains and in the Cascades. The upper
trough will move inland and weaken as it does so, and this will
bring some drier air back starting Wednesday morning. Currently the
next front will arrive Thursday, and there is more agreement that
the precipitation will begin at the coast Thursday afternoon.
Overall, this is looking to bring lighter impacts other than
cloudier skies and some showers. This system will likely impact
areas similar to the showers we`ll see Tuesday, near and east of the
Cascades.

Getting farther in the long term into the middle of April, there is
a trough that comes in and the Euro is tracking it farther north,
bringing lesser impacts to our area compared to the GFS who brings
it closer to us with more rain. Right now ~60% of the ensembles show
ridging in the PNW with the other 40% troughing by mid-April, so we
will analyze this as we get closer. -Hermansen

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT Tuesday
     for PZZ350-356-370-376.

&&

$$